Du Toit …..what the numbers reveal

Dud Toit has been described as our best 7 ever. Contentious but he certainly is the most popular Bok worldwide…..an iron fist in a velvet glove is the image. He started as a lock, looks like a lock….but does he play like a lock? Here are the numbers that suggest as his body ages his contributions have shifted towards lock duties.

For several years he has been our most prolific ball carrier. Not in the AB series, Wiese who is much more effective is the man providing momentum. Dud carried 27 times in the series….lost the ball twice and beat 2 defenders. He managed one line break in the 3rd fixture…..which pushed his metres per run up to 3…..otherwise his typical run is two meters with no offload. He managed zero offloads in the series.

As a ball carrier this isn’t much different to his usual work. What is interesting is his carries dropped from 17 in the first two tests, to 10 in the second two.

Defensively we can see a significant drop off. He made 62 tackles but missed 15. Still a high tackling rate, but short of his work in big series in the past……and tackling at 80% is below the team average. This has been his main contribution in the past, now apparently in decline in quantity and quality.

Interestingly though, his lineout work has picked up , with 7 lineouts secured in the series. If Wiese or Hanekom are going to do the ball carrying, if offloading or turnovers (he managed 1 in the series) aren’t really his thing, if tackling security is dropping off….switching to lineout contributions seems to be the plan going forward.

Overall the statistical picture is fairly typical of Dud’s past contributions but with some subtle shifts. It’s going to be interesting to see if he can stabilize his tackling at current levels, which already looked a bit precarious in the AB series, Definitely one of the Boks whose role in the 27 WC is unclear. Perhaps a bench role covering lock and flank might emerge.

It may be time for Du Toit to move to lock. Bulk up to close to 120 kg.
What a contribution he and Nortje would make. Terrific work rates.
But relax Mozzie Rassie will in all likelihood make the switch when the timing is right.

Actually Nortje’s numbers aren’t that great either. Clearly not a ball carrier averaging about 2.5 metres a run, with no clean breaks and defenders beaten. He did pass a lot more than Dud Toit…18 times to 12. So he didn’t die with the ball as much.

His defensive work was better 44 tackles vs Dud Toit at 62…..but he tackled at 88% vs Dud’s 80%. Gone are the days when Mostert would regularly make over 20 tackles with a success rate in the high 90s.

Nortje’s calling card was at the lineouts where he made 16 lineout takes in the series and was secure at number 5. Still he was hardly dominant at 5, the way Etzebeth was at the front.

Overall I would say Nortje has benefitted from a fair amount of hype. Hopefully for the WC we will finally see Snyman and Etzebeth…..the world’s two dominant locks together. Nortje is solid but he won’t be decisively winning many battles with the world’s top locks.

Comparing Nortje and Dud …..they were both flaccid ball carriers. If anything Dud was better. On defense Nortje was more reliable but not prolific. Their lineout stats probably just reflect their different roles. They are very similar players, both suited to 5 lock. If one had to choose I would pick Dud who is a bit more pro active and certainly more intimidating given his press

The numbers don't paint the complete picture... there's no measurement gauge for context.

You guys use the the stats to argue that we should have lost or did not deserved the win in some instances... whatever for only you will know...somehow you choose to trivialize the most important stat of all...points on the board...remind me again of your prediction for the RGR series...and how you got to make that prediction and how it turned out to be wrong...same for last year... what's the stat you use to measure gees?...you guys use stats to point out our weaknesses, but yet Rassie keeps on proving you wrong...winning ugly is still better than losing in style... somehow Rassie and his dud filled team keep on proving you wrong... that's the context....