Thoughts on AB tour

Last year I was pretty negative about our chances in the 4 big games of the year. They were all away games too.

We ended up winning 75% of them and did so in quite dominant style.

The conventional wisdom would dictate that since 3 of the 4 games against the ABs are in SA, the Boks should see the ABs off without too much trouble.

I know that not a single Bok fan here just read the above and felt comfortable with the "conventional wisdom". I don't either.

Mainly I'm worried about the AB ruck speed. If the Boks have had a weakness over the last few years it's that they've gotten flustered when teams came at them fast and cleared rucks quickly. The Eden Park game last year was the blueprint and I have a feeling that the ABs are gonna run out in Cape Town looking to hit rucks early and hard. I wouldn't be surprised to see them put a bit of extra effort into counter rucks, as they did successfully against Ireland, and the Boks at Eden Park.

I feel the ABs biggest risk factor is going to be injuries. If Love goes down, suddenly they'll look a lot like the ABs we've been beating over the last few years. What happens if Roigard gets injured? It's a long tour, they'll be playing so many games on the bounce, and on harder pitches than they're used to. It's going to be interesting to see their selections for the games against the franchise sides.

One feels that the Boks, playing less games, are less at risk of injuries, but also more able to replace anybody that takes a knock.

That first game in CT(correction; Ellis Park) is going to be brutal. I'm very much doubting it's going to be pretty rugby and instead have much more of the feel of a knockout game because that'll be the one that will set the tone.

I'll make a big call and predict that Jasper will be man of the series. I honestly think he's the MVP at the moment. That rubbish that they used to say about DDA "Stop DDA and you stop the Boks"...I think if you replace DDA's name with Jasper's then that statement becomes a lot more true at the moment.

Not long now!

What are your thoughts?

"The Eden Park game last year was the blueprint and I have a feeling that the ABs are gonna run out in Cape Town looking to hit rucks early and hard. "

Eden Park was a wet slippery mess...but yes, when the Allblacks are allowed to play their fast expansive game, they're close to impossible to beat ...this will be a very difficult test for the Bokke...the tour provides the platform for the Allblacks to get used to the conditions while being forged into a team...with the potential to exeed the hype and excitement of a B&I Lions tour...hope it lives up to the expectations.

The All Blacks have improved, but it is not clear how much. They just played at Eden Park, where they usually are at their best. The Springboks must start as strong favourites.

However, the Boks have not really played their best side this year, and have played many third-choice and even 4th choice players for much of the year. When they play Argentina, it will not be with the same team that plays against the All Blacks. Many of the top players are preparing for the All Blacks games.

The Argentina game seems like poor planning before a home series. Rather, play at home with a first-choice team before the All Blacks.

Interesting takes, but it remains to be seen whether the AB's have improved and by how much. I think we’ll have a clearer idea after the completion of the tour in South Africa. I’m not sure the game against Ireland is a good yardstick—on home soil against an ordinary Ireland, I’m not convinced.

As for their pattern of play, nothing’s changed. Their attack usually comes from broken play rather than set pieces, and they’re masters of the ruck and quick ball. None of this is new, and the Boks will be well aware of it. In fact, their style is quite predictable. Still, they’re very good at it, and it should help them settle into their game more comfortably than the Boks, especially in the first test where they’ll face conditions not dissimilar to those in New Zealand.
The Boks will be a bit off the pace at first, needing time to find their rhythm and coordination, improving as the game wears on since they haven’t fielded a settled side in quite a while. Their style is unpredictable—there’s really no set pattern—though the Kiwis know they’ll be facing a tough Bok defence and an attack that’s hard to prepare for. In our favor are the set pieces and the magic of Sacha; if not him, there's Kolbe, and if not Kolbe, we also have Arendse and Willemse.
All of them are game breakers.
The 1st test is the one the ABs need to win, if they don't...well...rest assured the Boks will be better than what they were in the 1st test.