Oil Prices: $62.54 to $108.78

It will be below $60 in 2 months....this nonsense won't last much longer.

The moment the US decided to blockade Hormuz the market knew the US was using the right lever and regardless of oil price movements, the marker soared.

The TDS clan are hating it haha

... drives them batshit. :-)

Looks like oil is heading to $80...

Gosh, i need to stop being this good at charting.

The crystal ball is strong with me mwhahaha!

Iran closes Strait of Hormuz again over continued US blockade of its ports, state media says

@ButtPlug, everyone knows that when the Sraight opens, the price of oil will go down. It went up when it was closed, so not sure what you are patting yourself on the back about.

Trump has now closed the Straight, not Iran.

Okay, Visser, then here is the challenge.

Provide us your price predictions. But not only that, tell us what the trading range is, what the breakdown levels are, where the likely rejection and bounce zones are what the trend will be....as I did above.

Yeah, not gonna happen, is it?

...and that's why I'm patting myself on the back.

Many of the calls above were made before the news that turned the market came.

Don't worry, Visser, the above is just one among many skills I posses that one actually needs a little brainpower for and are thus well out of your reach hahaha

Sounds like a crypto investor. Self-delusion of the grandest order.

Papbroek.

Trump has now closed the Straight, not Iran

Embarrassing

It is embarrassing that America would close the Strait after it was opened by Iran,

Buttplug, you cant do the sum without all of the variables.

When Iran announced that the Straight was Open, Trump announced it was still closed (His blockade was still live)

Trump made that announcement, then about 2 hours later, he announced the Straight was open

Just 20 minutes before Trump announced the Strait of Hormuz was open, Someone dumped 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures. A $760 million bet that oil prices would drop. Orders far larger than anything else in the market at that moment. They made a fortune. But somebody knew the announcement was coming. This is insider trading at the highest level of government.

Not necessarily...Plum knew, I knew...most sensible people knew...we told you lot on this very thread, you're just too stubborn to listen...try using logic for a change, instead of the hate inspired emotional hysteria.

"Buttplug, you cant do the sum without all of the variables."

You can't do sums even when all the variables ARE known.

Which is why you have no clue what you witnessed on this thread ;)

So ButtPlug, did your investment plan take into consideration that Iran would attack ships today, and the price of oil would go back up again?

A simple yes or no will suffice. Although you made no mention of this in your silly chart, the answer is obvious. You are an armchair crypto investor, fooling yourself.

1. Three-quarters of people who invested in Bitcoin between 2015 and 2022 lost money
2. Most crypto investors have lost money overall, but a smaller group has earned large gains

Most people who invested in Big Tech Stock has earnt more money overall. A much safer investment, with realistic profits. Anyone with a lot of money who had invested in Big Tech 10-15 years ago would be much richer.

Visser, I laid down a simple challenge based on your statement that anybody could have done what I did above.

Do you accept the challenge, yes or no?

I guess that's a no then ;)

-

Tail firmly tucked between the legs hahahaha

Why do you do this to yourself?

He's special

So ButtPlug, did your computation factor in future variables that you have no way of predicting? Even Trump does not know what he is going to do the next day, so how can anyone else

Oil prices rise after Trump says Iranian ship seized

"So ButtPlug, did your computation factor in future variables that you have no way of predicting? Even Trump does not know what he is going to do the next day, so how can anyone else"

Tell me you're way out of your depth without saying "I'm way out of my depth"

ButtPlug, the actions of Trump determine the oil price. He is the primary variable.

When it looks like negotiations are progressing, the oil price decreases. When it goes back to Trump threatening to end a civilisation, the oil prices increase.

The best economist or investor in the world couldn't predict what is going to happen to the oil price next, because they do not know what Trump's next action is.

Even Trump does not know what he is going to do the next day. He is volatile and unpredictable.

But let's listen to you because a new Crypto chip can spin faster.

"The best economist or investor in the world couldn't predict what is going to happen to the oil price next, because they do not know what Trump's next action is."

Again, you are so far out of your depth that you actually think that statement makes sense.

And I really can't be bothered to enlighten you as to why.

What I will say is that the price is gonna retrace to $80, bounce up off of $80 a couple/few times and then break below it and $80 will become a resistance level.

So let's see if I'm right.

And then, I guess, if I'm correct, that makes me better than the best economist in the world, even though I'm not an economist and actually only a hobby trader. Welcome to the world of Visser.

Another beautiful result of Iran closing the Strait and demonstrating their own vulnerability is Iran’s profit margin are likely to fall. Their cost of capital is going to go way up, making projects more expensive and difficult to fund, And many countries are talking about other routes to market avoiding the Straits. That oil will be seen as more predictable and Iran’s oil will likely have to be sold at a discount.

The market is a problem solving machine…measures already under discussion will be amplified by shifts to alternative energy sources…cheap, clean natural gas will be the first beneficiary. But even solar may benefit in sun abundant countries.

Did these 12th century nutters consider the likely response to their closing of Hormuz, not likely given how shocked they were when the US announced the boycott.

...but, but,....hlllldllledcg...haaahhh! Trump bad!!!!

h

The 4m-long reptile climbed out of the River Zambezi and headed for the kitchen after finding the buffet restaurant closed

@ButtPlug, your thoughts?

Fkg expensive excursion

Markets soar

Can't put a price on freedom.

I see you are asking after an update on the oil price Visser...

Looking at the charts, everything seems pretty classic and not too unpredictable.

Had you shorted the breakdown at (a) you'd have been in money.

Price has now turned and broken back into the ascending channel at (1) - a nice bullish move

Price then rejected off of the the top of the trading range at (2) - what is interesting here is if you look at the candles, each time it has gotten there...price touches the top of the trading range and then is very aggressively sold off. That is telling you that the market has very little confidence in the price breaking beyond that level. I've indicated those aggressive sell candles in yellow...cos I know you have no idea what I'm talking about haha

Price is now bouncing off of the bottom of the ascending channel at (3)

Quite a critical juncture now, since if price fails to complete a bounce and breaks down through the ascending channel now then that would be a good moment to short.

Looking at the momentum, an imemdiate break down through the channel seems less likely.

What seems more likely is a completed bounce toward position (5) and then a move back down to the bottom of the ascending channel.

If the price breaks out of the trading range and moves up to position (6) then that would be a huge moment to short - probably an opportunity for a small 7x leverage play back down to $90.

There we go. You asked for my analysis and I have provided it.

Can you have your next please?

here...

And now I can't fix my typos in the post above with the broken image...

lol

Plum

Hall Of Famer

20,245 posts

Apr 20, 2026, 21:07

What I will say is that the price is gonna retrace to $80, bounce up off of $80 a couple/few times and then break below it and $80 will become a resistance level.

So let's see if I'm right.

--------

ButtPlug, what I will say is that if you throw a tennis ball upwards it will rise, but eventually come down.

This is not ground breaking stuff, so charts are not needed. .

What I will say is that you should probably look up what trading is and what chart analysis is used for.

I'll give you a hint...trading and investing are not the same thing.

I very much doubt you'll twig the difference.

But thank you ever so much for your ground breaking tennis ball analogy. I'll be sure to send your highly knowledgeable insight to the Trader's Union and tell them all to go home.

So ButtPlug, did you put your money where your mouth was and invest in oil, expecting the price to drop so you could short sell?

Nowhere in your diatribe did you mention that oil prices could rise to $126. You suggested meagre increases (small bounces), before going down again.

As I said, Trump's actions are determining the price of oil.

So no matter how much anyone knows about economics, or lack thereof (in your case), you can't predict what is going to happen next. You delude yourself.

A crypto investor is a muppet.

Most of the "investors/muppets" have lost much more than they have earned.

The crypto companies make money regardless of what happens to the investment - look at Trump's crypto firm.

There are so many new crypto coins, looking for gullible fools to buy worthless nonsense.

I believe this is called chess with a pigeon.

Have you figured out the difference between investing and trading yet?