Oil’s Calm Is Over as Middle East Risks Return
By Tom Kool - Jul 10, 2026, 11:01 AM CDT
Norway Oil
Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes have revived the Middle East risk premium, lifting Brent above $76 as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slows and supply disruption fears return.
Iran say the Strait is closed until further notice.
So energy will return to what it was.
The basic calculus is Iran can close down the Straits and damage the world economy for a brief while, until other sources are brought into play. One of which may simply be to create a military solution that prevents Iran from closing the Straits.
On the other hand, the US can blockade the Straits and stop 70% of Iran’s oil exports, fundamentally destroying the Iranian economy. Iran’s best defense against that happening is the mid terms. But that ends in a few months and the closer we get to the political consequences being baked in, the less constraining the mid terms are.
We'll see what the market does.
Trump and America to become the Guardian Angel of the Strait....
They will charge a 20% fee for anyone using the Strait, collected by Jared Kushner and the Trump family.
Iran and its trading partners are no longer allowed to use the Strait at all
Trolling the hell out of everyone...
"WTI Crude 10 mins
78.38 +9.76%Graph up
Brent Crude
83.48 +9.83%Graph up
Murban Crude
77.91 +9.78%Graph down
Natural Gas
2.898 -1.43%"
Energy prices are increasing...I filled up the car today on a hunch...I bet it's down under $80 before I need to fill up again....
If Trump TACO's, the oil price will not increase much. However, if he tries to take the Strait, the oil price shall worsen.
He doesn't have to take it to block it... he's playing the same game as the mullahs... it's negotiation...the thing Iran think they're not doing...
he's playing the same game as the mullahs... it's negotiation... but regretfully between two batshit entities.
Iran's leaders will never accept what Trump wants, and Trump will never accept what Iran are prepared to concede.
Iran will not give up their nuclear program, especially given Trump has threatened to nuke him.
Marco Rubio: “That’s the law. It’s an international waterway. No country is allowed to charge tolls on an international waterway. That’s international law. That’s the way it is all over the world, and that’s the way we expect it will be here.”
Trump: “We’re charging tolls.”
@DbDraad - I see Trump is back to threatening to destroy their civil architecture.
For someone who has already won the war about 10 times, this is a surprise.
Trump and America do not make international laws or trade partnerships. If China get it cheaper, maybe it is because they are the biggest buyer of oil. As if Trump would want China or any other country to pay more the same price as America
@sharkbok ... it's easy to attach a military objective to civil infrastructure... you're supportive when Zelensky goes after Russian infrastructure in Russia...do Russia deserve it but not Iran?....or is it only because Trump threatens it on Iran?
